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| Facility Volumes, 10-Year Capital Plan, 20-Year Forecast |
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2000 Actual Volumes |
2010 Capital Plan |
2020 High Forecast |
| Containers (TEUs) |
290,000 |
Allows for Flexible Growth |
677,000 |
| Breakbulk (MT) |
585,000 |
Existing Capacity Allows for Growth |
880,000 |
| Automobiles (Units) |
385,000 |
Accommodates One New Customer |
503,000 |
| Bulk Grains (MT) |
2,919,000 |
Meets Growth Potential |
10,000,000 |
| Bulk Minerals (MT) |
3,827,000 |
Facility Modernization and Storage Capacity Upgrades |
5,720,000 |
A Commodity Flow Forecast Update and Lower Columbia River Cargo Forecast was developed in cooperation with the Regional Transportation Council, the Port of Vancouver USA, Metro and the Oregon Department of Transportation. The MTMP 2020 used this regional cargo forecast to predict the low and high cargo forecasts for the container, breakbulk, grain, mineral bulk and auto cargos that the Port´s terminals will need to handle. The low cargo forecast predicts that Port cargo volumes remain steady. The high forecast was used for the MTMP 2020. It predicts that container volumes could grow at 4.4 percent, breakbulk cargo at three percent and mineral bulks at two percent. The high forecast also highlights the opportunity for new grain and auto facilities.
Export containers are expected to exhibit annual growth of between -0.1 percent (low) and 4.4 percent (high). Import containers are forecast to exhibit annual growth of between 0.7 percent (low) and 4.2 percent (high). Total containers (exports plus imports) are expected to increase from 288,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2000 to between 296,000 TEUs (low) and 677,000 TEUs (high) by 2020,
Breakbulk exports are expected to range from a low of 4,000 metric tons (MT) to a high of 19,000 MT by the year 2020. Breakbulk imports are expected to range between 468,000 MT (low) and 836,000 MT (high) by 2020.
Under the low growth scenario, autos decline slightly from existing volumes, to 331,000 units in 2020. Under the high-growth scenario, autos increase to nearly 503,000 by 2020, or at an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent from year 2000 volumes. The high growth forecast assumes that another automobile importer/exporter is attracted to Portland before 2010.
Portland grain elevators are expected to export between 5.6 million MT (low) and 10 million MT (high) by the year 2020. This amounts to an annual growth of 0.1 percent (low) and 2.9 percent (high) between 2000 and 2020. Future Port of Portland grain volumes are highly dependent on the individual facility and marketing decisions of the grain companies. Given the age, condition and location of the Portland grain facilities (other than T-5), it is likely that new facility capacity will be built and old capacity will be retired during the forecast period.
Future bulk mineral volumes are highly interdependent with the facility and marketing decisions of the major shippers and tenants.
Bulk mineral exports are expected to range between 3.4 million MT (low), which equates to a loss of 0.6 percent per year, and 5.7 million MT (high) by the year 2020, which represents 2.0 percent annual growth between 2000 and 2020.
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